- Hints (including clarifications) to
Solving Conundrums Part 1
The First Conundrum
Restatement of the problem:
How many of the alternatives in this
question is/are correct?
A) 1 of the alternatives
B) 2 of the alternatives
C) 0 of the alternatives
D) 1 of the alternatives
The Second Conundrum
This solution is
supposed to only use a question referring twice to the brother who is
alive. This one is connected to the third conundrum.
The Third Conundrum
This question is
related to the post on Limitations of Logic
The Fourth Conundrum
The wikipedia-page
on this (unexpected hanging paradox) is the worst I have seen. It is
a lot simpler than that. Start with defining surprised.
If you think
something (H) will happen (or not), there are four possible outcomes
with respect to your information:
You said H would
happen, and it does -> you're right
You said H would
not happen, and it does not -> you're right
You said H would
happen, but it does not happen -> False Positive
You said H would
not happen, but it does happen -> False Negative
Are you surprised
when you do a false negative, or are you surprised whenever you do
either a false negative or a false positive?
http://lesswrong.com/lw/3zd/resolving_the_unexpected_hanging_paradox/
ReplyDeleteI'll be working my way through it and see if they've found the sensible resolution; the linked page includes links to published papers on the problem.
Addendum: No, they're not doing much better over there than on the 'pedia. There are a few posts which almost touch on what I consider to be the proper resolution, but they give so little detail that one can't be sure. I'll give the article a try too, I guess.
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